The war in Ukraine overshadowed financial markets throughout the month, but hopes of a breakthrough in peace talks lifted sentiment towards risk assets. Solid gains among US-listed stocks helped the MSCI World Index rise more than 3%.
The Budget boost for low to middle income earners, in particular, was designed to improve the Government’s approval ratings ahead of May’s Federal Election.
Other forecasts released alongside the Budget provided further grounds for optimism. Officials expect unemployment to fall to 3.75% later
this year – from 4.0% currently – and annual wage growth to rise above 3% for the first time in a decade.
If these forecasts prove accurate, the Reserve Bank of Australia is more likely to follow other central banks and start raising official
interest rates in the months ahead.
Geopolitical tensions remained in focus in June as renewed conflict in the Middle East disrupted oil supply routes and raised concerns about broader regional instability. Oil prices spiked as tensions rose and supply concerns mounted, though moderated after a ceasefire was called 12 days later. Brent closed June +5.8% higher at $67.61.
While the month began with constructive discussions and agreements between the US and some of its trading partners, uncertainty returned to the market after President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Europe and multiple large corporates such as Apple, Samsung and Mattel, and again near month-end as the Court of International Trade deemed the global tariffs to be “contrary to law.”
