Investors continued to focus on rampant inflation and, in turn, potential changes in monetary policy settings.
By month end, five interest rate increases in the US had been priced in to markets; a more aggressive tightening in policy settings than had been anticipated previously.
These evolving expectations saw bond yields rise in all major regions – resulting in negative returns from fixed income markets – and
spooked share markets. Major equity indices in the US, Europe and Australia all closed January substantially lower.
Geopolitical tensions remained in focus in June as renewed conflict in the Middle East disrupted oil supply routes and raised concerns about broader regional instability. Oil prices spiked as tensions rose and supply concerns mounted, though moderated after a ceasefire was called 12 days later. Brent closed June +5.8% higher at $67.61.
While the month began with constructive discussions and agreements between the US and some of its trading partners, uncertainty returned to the market after President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Europe and multiple large corporates such as Apple, Samsung and Mattel, and again near month-end as the Court of International Trade deemed the global tariffs to be “contrary to law.”
